The recent European Parliament elections have caused significant political changes, especially in France. French President Emmanuel Macron’s party, Renaissance, faced a severe defeat by the far-right National Rally (RN) party. This unexpected loss led Macron to dissolve France’s National Assembly and call for new elections on June 30 and July 7. He hopes to regain a majority for his party, but this move is risky and could further damage his presidency, which lasts until 2027.
Across Europe, while centrist coalitions are expected to maintain a majority in the 720-seat European Parliament, far-right and ultra-nationalist parties have gained considerable ground. This shift is evident in countries like Germany, France, Austria, and Italy. It reflects growing voter dissatisfaction with issues such as immigration, inflation, economic slowdowns, and opposition to environmental reforms.
In France, the RN, led by Jordan Bardella, achieved its best-ever performance, significantly weakening Macron’s Renaissance party. This result has sent shockwaves through the French political landscape and raised concerns about the country’s future direction.
In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made significant gains, as did other far-right parties in Austria and Italy. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s far-right “Brothers of Italy” party also performed strongly. These results indicate a broader trend towards the right across Europe.
Despite these far-right gains, the European People’s Party (EPP), representing mainstream conservative views, remains the largest party in the European Parliament. The EPP is set to secure about 25% of the seats, reaffirming its dominant position. The center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group also managed to hold its ground. These two centrist groups will play a crucial role in shaping EU policies on issues like industry, agriculture, and climate change.
However, the success of far-right parties has significant implications. These parties, although diverse and sometimes divided on key issues, collectively hold a substantial number of seats. This could push EU policies to the right, especially regarding immigration, trade, and environmental regulations.
In the Netherlands, despite expectations that Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom Party (PVV) would win, the Labour/Green alliance narrowly edged past them. This result provides some hope for centrists but also highlights the ongoing shift to the right in Dutch politics.
Green parties across Europe, however, faced setbacks. In Germany, the Greens dropped to fourth place, losing significant support. In France, they barely passed the minimum threshold for representation. This decline means the Greens will have less influence in the European Parliament, even as Europe faces severe climate challenges.
The election results serve as a barometer for the political climate in Europe. They reflect growing divisions and the rise of populist and nationalist sentiments. While the European Parliament itself has limited power compared to other EU institutions like the European Commission and the European Council, its composition signals the political mood in key member states.
For the EU, these results present several challenges. Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, needs to secure support for a second term. This will require careful coalition-building among centrist parties. The new Parliament will also have to address critical issues such as the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict, economic pressures, and immigration.
For India, these developments in Europe are crucial. The EU is India’s third-largest trading partner, and any shift towards protectionism could impact trade negotiations. Concerns over immigration in Europe might lead to stricter controls, affecting Indian professionals and workers seeking opportunities in the EU.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming meetings with European leaders at the G-7 summit will be an opportunity to discuss these issues. Strengthening India-EU relations will be vital, especially with an EU-India summit expected in 2025. India will aim to engage closely with the EU on trade, mobility agreements, and other key areas.
In summary, the recent European Parliament elections have highlighted significant political shifts in Europe. The rise of far-right parties poses challenges for EU unity and policy direction. For India, these changes necessitate a strategic approach to maintaining and strengthening its relationship with the EU amidst a changing political landscape.
