The assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has significantly escalated tensions, with Iran vowing “harsh punishment” and revenge against Israel. This high-profile killing during the inauguration of Iran’s new president sends a clear message from Israel to Iran to “de-escalate,” according to analyst Nicholas Heras from Washington’s New Lines Institute. The attack, along with the killing of senior Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut, showcases Israel’s superior intelligence and operational capabilities, as Heras pointed out.
Ahron Bregman, a Middle East security professor at King’s College London, highlighted the uncertainty of Iran’s response but noted that a direct attack on Israel is unlikely due to Iran’s focus on developing nuclear capabilities. Instead, Iran is expected to retaliate through its proxies, despite the embarrassment of an assassination occurring on its own soil.
The killing of Haniyeh has also disrupted ongoing cease-fire negotiations in the Gaza conflict. Qatar condemned the assassination as a “dangerous escalation” and a blatant violation of international law. Analyst Heras remarked that this incident hampers U.S.-backed efforts by Qatar and Egypt to negotiate a cease-fire and hostage release.
World leaders reacted with concern, condemning the assassination and warning of potential regional destabilization. Western leaders, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, emphasized the need for restraint and the importance of continuing efforts toward a cease-fire.
