The conflict between Israel and Hamas remains deeply entrenched, with both sides believing they have more to gain by continuing to fight rather than seeking an immediate ceasefire. Despite numerous rounds of mediated talks, international pressure, and a UN resolution, neither Israel nor Hamas has made the necessary concessions to end the 10-month-old war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears convinced that further military action in Gaza will yield more benefits than halting the offensive. The conflict has severely damaged Israel’s international reputation, strained relations with Washington, and resulted in significant military and civilian casualties. However, Israel has managed to kill key Hamas leaders, including Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa, and claims to have restored its strategic deterrence.
Despite these military successes, the high civilian death toll in Gaza, estimated by Palestinian health officials to include a large number of women and children, raises questions about the effectiveness of Israel’s strategy. Some military experts, both in Israel and internationally, argue that it would be more prudent to end the operation and focus on other threats, such as those posed by Iran and Hezbollah.
Netanyahu’s reluctance to seek a ceasefire may be influenced by political considerations. His ruling coalition could collapse if right-wing factions opposed to concessions break away. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption trials, and continued military success could bolster his political standing.
On the other side, Yahya Sinwar, the newly appointed leader of Hamas, shows no interest in compromise. Sinwar, a veteran of Islamist militancy, is committed to the destruction of Israel and sees continued fighting as a way to strengthen Hamas’s negotiating position. Despite the immense suffering in Gaza, Sinwar appears to believe that this pressure will force Israel to make concessions.
Sinwar’s rise to power within Hamas, replacing the more pragmatic Ismail Haniyeh, suggests that the organization is unlikely to soften its stance. Sinwar views the conflict as a necessary sacrifice, with even massive civilian casualties seen as acceptable to achieve Hamas’s goals.
The challenge in reaching a ceasefire lies in finding a way for both Netanyahu and Sinwar to claim victory. While international mediators, including the US, Qatar, and Egypt, have proposed a new deal that they hope will bridge the remaining gaps, skepticism remains high. Previous attempts at negotiation have faltered, and trust between the two sides is nearly nonexistent.
Despite a recent White House statement expressing optimism about a potential agreement, Hamas has dismissed the idea, calling it an illusion. Both Hamas and Israeli officials remain cautious, with each side blaming the other for the lack of progress.
The ongoing conflict poses the risk of a wider regional war, especially if talks between Israel and Hamas collapse. Hezbollah and Iran, both allies of Hamas, could escalate the situation, further destabilizing the region.
As the conflict drags on, the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate. The spread of polio within the densely populated and besieged territory underscores the urgent need for a ceasefire. However, with both sides deeply entrenched in their positions, the prospect of a peaceful resolution remains uncertain.
