Israel is currently contemplating a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which would result in a 60-day suspension of hostilities. This plan is designed to facilitate the creation of a lasting peace deal that would involve moving Hezbollah fighters away from the Israeli border and increasing the number of UN peacekeepers in the area. This initiative is being guided by U.S. envoys Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein, who are set to visit Israel.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with top advisers to discuss the proposal, emphasizing that significant challenges remain, especially given the history of failed ceasefires, particularly between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Since the conflict with Hamas erupted last October, Hezbollah has been actively launching missiles and drones at Israel, asserting that its military operations will continue until a ceasefire is achieved in the Palestinian territories.
Hezbollah’s stance on this latest proposal is uncertain. The group has sustained heavy losses recently, including the assassination of its long-time leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. Following his death, Hezbollah appointed Naim Qasem as his successor. Both Hezbollah and Hamas, regarded as terrorist organizations by the U.S. and many other countries, are supported by Iran.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich expressed confidence that “the war in the north will be over by the end of the year,” suggesting that 2025 will not see continued conflict but rather a resolution. These developments have contributed to a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude falling about 6% in recent days. Israel’s military operations have strategically avoided targeting Iran’s critical infrastructure.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated that Hezbollah’s command structure has been significantly disrupted and estimated that its missile and rocket capabilities are now at only 20% of their pre-conflict levels. Despite this, there are still daily missile launches from Lebanon into Israel, although at a lower frequency than in previous weeks. On Wednesday, Israeli military sirens were activated in parts of the Galilee region due to an incoming missile that disintegrated in mid-air.
Opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yair Lapid indicated he is receiving regular updates from the government regarding efforts to de-escalate the situation in Lebanon, advocating for a diplomatic resolution. The conflict has resulted in tens of thousands of people fleeing their homes on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border, with Israeli attacks in Lebanon claiming over 2,000 lives and displacing approximately 1.2 million people, according to Lebanese government figures. Meanwhile, nearly 100 Israeli civilians and soldiers have died as a result of Hezbollah’s strikes over the past year.
