The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook 2024 highlights key changes in nuclear arsenals, notably in India, Pakistan, and China. For the first time in 25 years, India’s nuclear stockpile has surpassed that of Pakistan. This change reflects India’s growing nuclear capabilities and strategic priorities. This summary provides an overview of the report’s findings and the implications for regional and global security.
India’s Nuclear Advancements
India’s Growing Stockpile:
- As of January 2024, India has 172 nuclear warheads, up from 164 the previous year.
- This increase places India slightly ahead of Pakistan, which has 170 warheads.
Focus on China:
- While Pakistan remains a key focus of India’s nuclear strategy, India is now placing more importance on developing longer-range weapons that can reach targets throughout China.
- This shift indicates India’s expanding strategic interests and the desire to counterbalance China’s growing influence.
Development of a Nuclear Triad:
- India is building a “nuclear triad,” which means having the capability to launch nuclear weapons from land, sea, and air.
- This includes developing aircraft, land-based missiles, and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).
- The INS Arihant, India’s first nuclear-powered submarine, was launched in 2018, marking a significant step in this direction. More SSBNs are expected to be deployed soon.
Mating Warheads with Launchers:
- Traditionally, India kept its nuclear warheads separate from their launchers during peacetime.
- However, recent developments, such as placing missiles in canisters and conducting sea-based patrols, suggest that India might now be mating some of its warheads with their launchers even during peacetime.
New Missile Developments:
- India is developing new types of land-based ballistic missiles, such as the medium-range Agni-P and the intermediate-range Agni-V, which are nearing operational deployment.
- An intercontinental variant, the Agni-VI, is also in the design stage.
- Additionally, India is working on a land-based version of the K-15 submarine-launched ballistic missile, known as Shaurya.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal
Static Numbers:
- Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile has remained the same at 170 warheads from last year.
- Despite this static number, Pakistan continues to develop new nuclear delivery systems.
Nuclear Delivery Systems:
- Both India and Pakistan are focused on enhancing their nuclear delivery capabilities.
- This ongoing development underscores the continued nuclear rivalry between the two nations.
China’s Rapid Nuclear Expansion
Significant Increase in Stockpile:
- China’s nuclear arsenal has grown from 410 warheads in 2023 to 500 in 2024.
- This rapid increase reflects China’s significant modernization and expansion of its nuclear capabilities.
Future Growth Projections:
- China’s nuclear stockpile is expected to continue growing over the next decade.
- Projections suggest that China might eventually deploy as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either Russia or the United States.
Changes in Nuclear Posture:
- Traditionally, China, like India, kept its nuclear warheads separate from their launchers during peacetime.
- Recent moves, such as placing solid-fuel missiles in silos and conducting sea-based deterrence patrols, indicate a shift toward possibly mating some warheads with their launchers.
- These changes also suggest that China might be developing a launch-on-warning (LOW) capability, which would allow for rapid response in the event of an imminent threat.
Maintaining Deterrence:
- China’s stated aim is to maintain its nuclear capabilities at a minimum level necessary for national security.
- This involves deterring other countries from using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against China.
- Despite these expansions, China’s overall nuclear warhead stockpile is still expected to remain smaller than those of Russia and the United States.
Global Nuclear Landscape
Total Nuclear Weapons:
- The nine nuclear-armed countries (the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel) collectively hold approximately 12,121 nuclear weapons.
- Of these, 9,585 are considered to be operationally available.
US and Russia:
- The US and Russia possess nearly 90% of all nuclear weapons, with the US holding 5,044 and Russia 5,580 warheads.
- Both countries also have over 1,200 retired warheads that are gradually being dismantled.
Modernization Efforts:
- All nine nuclear-armed countries are continuing to modernize their nuclear arsenals.
- This includes deploying new weapon systems and enhancing existing capabilities.
- Despite reductions in Cold War-era weapons, the number of operational nuclear warheads continues to rise each year.
Regional Dynamics and Security Concerns:
- India, Pakistan, and North Korea are pursuing the capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, a capability already possessed by Russia, France, the UK, the USA, and, more recently, China.
- This development could rapidly increase the number of deployed warheads and the potential for greater destruction in a conflict.
Transparency and Tensions:
- Transparency regarding nuclear forces has declined, particularly between the US and Russia, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
- Debates around nuclear-sharing arrangements and the potential for nuclear conflict have intensified.
Implications for Regional and Global Security
The ongoing developments in nuclear arsenals, especially in Asia, have several implications for regional and global security:
Increased Regional Tensions:
- The increase in nuclear stockpiles and the development of new delivery systems by India, Pakistan, and China are likely to heighten regional tensions.
- India’s shift in focus towards longer-range missiles capable of reaching China, coupled with China’s rapid nuclear expansion, suggests a more complex security environment in Asia.
Arms Race Concerns:
- The steady increase in nuclear capabilities among these countries could lead to an arms race, with each nation seeking to outmatch the other.
- This arms race not only increases the risk of nuclear conflict but also places a significant financial burden on the countries involved.
Global Security Risks:
- The global trend of increasing operational nuclear warheads and modernization efforts by nuclear-armed states poses significant risks to international security.
- The possibility of accidental or intentional nuclear launches becomes more concerning as countries adopt more aggressive postures, such as mating warheads with launchers during peacetime.
Strategic Stability:
- Strategic stability, particularly between India and Pakistan, is fragile due to their history of conflicts and ongoing rivalry.
- China’s expanding nuclear capabilities and potential changes in its nuclear doctrine could further destabilize the region.
Policy Responses:
- There is a need for renewed efforts in nuclear disarmament and arms control to address the growing threats posed by the increasing number of operational nuclear weapons.
- Diplomatic engagements and confidence-building measures between nuclear-armed states, especially in South Asia and East Asia, are crucial to preventing escalation and maintaining regional stability.
In conclusion, the SIPRI Yearbook 2024 highlights significant changes in the nuclear arsenals of India, Pakistan, and China, with implications for regional and global security. India’s increase in its nuclear stockpile and strategic shift towards countering China, Pakistan’s ongoing developments despite static numbers, and China’s rapid expansion and modernization of its nuclear arsenal underscore the evolving dynamics in Asia. The overall increase in operational nuclear warheads and modernization efforts among nuclear-armed states point to a concerning trend that necessitates urgent attention and action to ensure global security and stability.
