Former Turkish Politician Proposes Sale of S-400s to India, Pakistan to Rejoin F-35 Program

Former Turkish politician Cavit Caglar recently proposed that Turkey sell its unused S-400 Triumf air defense systems, a suggestion that could have far-reaching implications for Turkey’s international relationships, particularly with Russia, the United States, and its defense partners.

Caglar argued that selling the S-400s would facilitate Turkey’s reintegration into the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program and help it secure modern F-16 fighter jets from the U.S. He identified Pakistan and India as potential buyers, highlighting the complex geopolitical dynamics and existing tensions between these two countries.

This proposal comes in the context of strained U.S.-Turkey relations, primarily due to Turkey’s 2019 purchase of the S-400s from Russia, which led to Turkey being expelled from the F-35 program. The U.S. has indicated that Turkey might be allowed to rejoin the program if the S-400 issue is resolved, though Ankara has so far been reluctant to part with the system.

However, several challenges complicate the potential sale:

1. Russian Approval: Turkey would likely need Russia’s consent to sell the S-400 to a third party. It’s uncertain whether Moscow would agree, especially if the buyer is India or Pakistan, given Russia’s strategic partnership with India.
2. Economic Constraints: Pakistan, one of the potential buyers mentioned by Caglar, might struggle to afford the S-400s due to their high cost and Pakistan’s ongoing economic difficulties.
3. India’s Existing Ties: India already has an S-400 deal with Russia and would be cautious about further acquisitions that could trigger U.S. sanctions under the CAATSA law. Moreover, India’s relations with Turkey have been strained in recent years, making a direct purchase from Ankara unlikely.
4. Turkey’s Domestic Considerations: Despite Caglar’s suggestion, Turkey has so far remained committed to retaining the S-400s, driven by domestic political pressures and the symbolic significance of the system for the Turkish government.

Caglar’s proposal is an interesting one and reflects the delicate balancing act that Turkey faces in its foreign relations. However, any decision to sell the S-400s would require careful negotiation with Russia and potential buyers, along with consideration of the broader strategic consequences for Turkey’s defense and international standing.