A classified U.S. nuclear strategic plan, approved by President Joe Biden earlier this year, has sparked attention due to its significant shift in focus. According to reports from The New York Times, this updated strategy primarily targets China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal while also preparing for the possibility of a coordinated nuclear threat from China, Russia, and North Korea. The White House clarified that this plan is not a reaction to a single country or threat, but rather a broader adjustment to the evolving global security landscape.
In March, Biden secretly authorized a substantial revision of America’s nuclear defense strategy. For the first time, this new “deterrence strategy” is specifically oriented toward China’s growing nuclear capabilities. The plan also addresses the rising threat of potential cooperation between Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang, reflecting a deeper awareness of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambitions to bolster China’s nuclear power and the strengthening of strategic ties among these three nations.
The Pentagon’s China Military Power Report from last October highlighted a dramatic increase in China’s nuclear arsenal, revealing that it had more than doubled in just three years. The report estimated that as of May last year, China had around 500 operational nuclear warheads, with projections suggesting this number could rise to 1,000 by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035. This would bring China’s nuclear stockpile closer to those of the U.S. and Russia, marking a major shift in the global nuclear balance.
Defense experts have cautioned against underestimating Xi Jinping’s strategic objectives, warning that the security risks are escalating as U.S.-China relations deteriorate and China continues its large-scale nuclear build-up. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie China Research Centre, recently noted the growing dangers in a paper on China’s evolving nuclear policy.
The updated Nuclear Employment Guidance, which is highly classified and only accessible to a select group of national security officials and Pentagon commanders, represents the U.S. response to these developments. While the White House has not publicly announced this revised strategy, hints of the shift were made in statements by senior administration officials before a more detailed, unclassified notification to Congress.
Pranay Vaddi, the National Security Council’s senior director for arms control and nonproliferation, acknowledged that this is the first time the U.S. has examined its readiness to handle simultaneous or sequential nuclear crises involving multiple adversaries. He emphasized the strategy’s focus on deterring Russia, China, and North Korea simultaneously.
Vipin Narang, an official and nuclear security professor at MIT, confirmed that the president had recently issued updated guidance to account for the growing nuclear threat posed by these nations. He specifically pointed to the significant increase in the size and diversity of China’s nuclear arsenal as a critical factor in this strategic adjustment.
This strategic shift underscores the increasing complexity of nuclear deterrence in the current global environment, with the U.S. preparing to address the challenges posed by multiple nuclear-armed adversaries simultaneously.
